‘Transactional’ but pivotal: how Xi-Trump talks could redefine US-China fault lines

US President Donald Trump’s landmark visit to China comes as the US-Iran war disrupts global energy supplies, fuels economic uncertainty and adds fresh strain to Washington-Beijing ties. In the latest instalment of a series examining how rivalry, interdependence and geopolitical crises are reshaping the relationship between the two powers, we look at the likely outcomes from Trump’s trip.

As Donald Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday night for the first US presidential visit in nearly a decade, the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship faced a pivotal test.

Trump will hold talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping against the backdrop of a fragile trade truce, intense strategic rivalry and global turmoil from the US-Iran war.

The US president wants to rebalance the relationship and focus on “reciprocity and fairness” to restore American economic independence, according to White House officials. They said the discussion was expected to cover trade, artificial intelligence, Iran, Taiwan and other security issues.

For Beijing it will be a test to see if Washington can refrain from any further escalation on tariffs, export controls and Taiwan. It will also be a test of whether US policy on China has become too ideologically hardened to be influenced by leader-level diplomacy.