As Malaysia’s election ‘war drums’ beat, is Anwar’s coalition done for?

Chances of Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim winning a fresh mandate look increasingly fraught, according to experts, as the unravelling of his coalition government gathered pace over the weekend amid threats of all-out war between allies and the defection of former stalwarts to a rival party. Anwar has presided over a period of relative political stability since his appointment as prime minister in November 2022 by then king Sultan Abdullah Ahmad Shah, on condition that he included both allies and rivals in his administration. But with his five-year tenure due to expire in less than two years, members of his ragtag unity government have begun reverting to old positions to win back support from their respective voter bases who are unhappy with the political compromises they made to join the coalition. It was Anwar himself who fanned the flames of political conflict on Sunday, when he declared that his ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition was ready for a fight. “If the drums of war are being beaten and people want to start a war, we are ready and we will fight,” he said at the PH annual convention in Johor. The southern state is ground zero for the deepening rift between PH and former rival turned coalition partner Barisan Nasional (BN), the former ruling coalition led by Umno. If the drums of war are being beaten and people want to start a war, we are ready and we will fight Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim Just two days before Anwar’s impassioned speech, Johor Chief Minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi, a senior Umno leader, declared that the party would contest all 56 seats in the state election due in the coming months. The decision puts Umno, which won 40 seats in the last state poll in 2021, in direct competition with PH component parties, particularly Anwar’s own People’s Justice Party (PKR) and the ethnic Chinese-led Democratic Action Party. ‘Election mode’ “It is the beginning of the end of the PH-BN partnership. Malaysia is in election mode,” said Adib Zalkapli, managing director of risk consultancy Viewfinder Global Affairs. Anwar depends on Umno to secure the legitimacy to govern, not least given PH’s enduring difficulty in winning support from the country’s conservative Malay base. On Sunday, he said he would seek to negotiate a pact with Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is also Malaysia’s deputy prime minister, while in Johor. “I will meet the Umno president and negotiate properly. Why should we fight over it?” national news agency Bernama quoted him as saying. “If we fight, those below [us] will quarrel too. What is important is our effort to help the people.” Umno, however, is not Anwar’s only problem. Another party has also joined the fray. On the same day Anwar was rallying his coalition in Johor, former ministers Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad announced they had taken over Penang-based Parti Bersama Malaysia (Malaysian United Party). Rafizi, an influential leader who quit PKR last year after a contentious party election, said Bersama filled a need for a platform to champion political reform and nurture new leaders – areas that were once PH’s domain. “Society today … must have a choice. We want to choose the best, not be forced to choose from among those we do not like, forced to choose the best among the bad,” Rafizi said at the launch. With a leaked internal survey suggesting PH could lose all but seven of the 66 seats it plans to contest in the next general election, the Rafizi-led revolt threatens to worsen the damage, according to Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate with the University of Nottingham Malaysia’s Asia Research Institute. “Bersama provides another option for reform voters. What this does is create an option, removing the ‘no choice’ element that gave PH an advantage among voters who refuse to support PN or BN,” Welsh said, referring to the Malay-nationalist Perikatan Nasional (PN) opposition bloc. “An Anwar-led PH is no longer seen as a natural reform home for many of their base,” she added, noting that Bersama’s message of generational reset might resonate with younger voters – a demographic with a significant share of political fence-sitters. The time is now? Some experts argue that the growing political pressure, paired with economic anxiety over the energy crisis caused by the Iran war, gives Anwar reason to call an early national poll. Public sentiment is expected to deteriorate further once fuel stockpiles run out in early July, potentially triggering fuel subsidy cuts and higher living costs. Bersama would nonetheless need time to organise before it could mount a credible threat to PH, said Syaza Shukri, a political-science professor at the International Islamic University of Malaysia. Umno’s so-called resurgence, meanwhile, remained untested in Malay heartland areas where PN still held sway, Syaza said. “Even though PH looks fractured, it’s not like the rest are in their best shape as well. With Bersama maybe needing time to organise, it might be good for [Anwar] to have GE16 soon,” Syaza said, referring to the next general election, the country’s 16th since independence. An early election would not automatically translate into an easier campaign for Anwar, however. The Sabah state election in November – when PH candidates were all but wiped out – offered the clearest indication yet of disillusionment among a support base frustrated by the slow pace of Anwar’s reform agenda. Anwar’s defensive handling of controversies, reportedly including the shareholding and “corporate mafia” scandals implicating senior anti-corruption officials, has done little to help. Analysts say it has instead emboldened the opposition and other groups vying to occupy PH’s political space. “Malaysia may ultimately witness a far more fragmented and competitive electoral landscape in GE16, with multi-cornered contests becoming the norm rather than the exception,” said Hisomuddin Bakar, executive director at independent research firm Ilham Centre. “Such a scenario opens a new and highly unpredictable chapter in Malaysian politics, where traditional coalition arithmetic may no longer guarantee electoral stability or political dominance.”

As Malaysia’s election ‘war drums’ beat, is Anwar’s coalition done for?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Rival-turned-ally Umno – and allies-turned-rivals Rafizi and Nik Nazmi – may force the prime minister to call an early election

Rival-turned-ally Umno – and allies-turned-rivals Rafizi and Nik Nazmi – may force the prime minister to call an early election